The Biggest Risk to the Economy in 2012, and What's the Economy For Anyway?
http://robertreich.org/post/16773820312
Thoughts and feelings about life.
Monday, January 30, 2012
The Biggest Risk to the Econom... (robertreich.org)
The Biggest Risk to the Economy in 2012, and What's the Economy For Anyway?
http://robertreich.org/post/16773820312
The Greatest Books of All Time, As Voted by 125 Famous Authors
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The Greatest Books of All Time, As Voted by 125 Famous Authors
Why Tolstoy is 11.6% better than Shakespeare.
"Reading is the nourishment that lets you do interesting work," Jennifer Egan once said. This intersection of reading and writing is both a necessary bi-directional life skill for us mere mortals and a secret of iconic writers' success, as bespoken by their personal libraries. The Top Ten: Writers Pick Their Favorite Books asks 125 of modernity's greatest British and American writers — including Norman Mailer, Ann Pratchett, Jonathan Franzen, Claire Messud, and Joyce Carol Oates — "to provide a list, ranked, in order, of what [they] consider the ten greatest works of fiction of all time– novels, story collections, plays, or poems."
Of the 544 separate titles selected, each is assigned a reverse-order point value based on the number position at which it appears on any list — so, a book that tops a list at number one receives 10 points, and a book that graces the bottom, at number ten, receives 1 point.
In introducing the lists, David Orr offers a litmus test for greatness:
If you're putting together a list of 'the greatest books,' you'll want to do two things: (1) out of kindness, avoid anyone working on a novel; and (2) decide what the word 'great' means. The first part is easy, but how about the second? A short list of possible definitions of 'greatness' might look like this:
1. 'Great' means 'books that have been greatest for me.'
2. 'Great' means 'books that would be considered great by the most people over time.'
3. 'Great' has nothing to do with you or me — or people at all. It involves transcendental concepts like God or the Sublime.
4. 'Great'? I like Tom Clancy.
From David Foster Wallace (#1: The Screwtape Letters by C.S...
The Best Fix for Our Tax System? Replace Income Taxes with Sales Taxes
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The Best Fix for Our Tax System? Replace Income Taxes with Sales Taxes
It would mean simpler compliance, less cheating, and a lighter carbon footprint. It would even be an offshore-resistant job creator.
Alan Cleaver_2000/Flickr
This week's Working it Out question was, "What one change would you make to our taxation system?" Readers' most frequent ideas were versions of "soak the rich." For example, "Eliminate tax breaks for the wealthy. We have been waiting for the 'trickle down' for almost ten years now and it hasn't happened." Or this: "Is investment really going to dry up if the capital gains rates are higher for the wealthy?"
Calls to soak the rich aren't surprising in light of the ubiquitous narratives attacking candidate Mitt Romney paying "only" $6.2 million in federal taxes over the last two years. A Google search on the term "Romney tax return" yielded 448,000 links that were posted in the last week alone! (In fairness, Republicans don't have a monopoly on mining tax loopholes. For example, John Kerry's wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, has a net worth of $500,000,000, 10 times that of Romney, yet in the year Kerry ran for president (they filed "married, filing separately,") she paid a lower rate than Romney.)
Part of me is sympathetic to further taxing the rich. After all, the rich-poor gap is very wide. (Although in fairness, according to studies reported last week in the New York Times, the rich in the last two years are getting poorer and forecast to keep getting poorer.) In addition, no matter how smart, hard-working or innovative someone is, or how many jobs he or she creates, it seems cosmically unjust that some people have a mansion (or two), yacht (or two) and more money than they could spend in Methuselah's lifetime, while other people must eat ramen in hovels. Also making me sympathetic to squeezing fat cats is that the poor spend rather than save a larger percentage of their income, so by redistributing dollars to them, more money gets quickly pumped into the economy.
On the other hand, I am not immune to opposing arguments, for example, those made in The Economist, which points out that, as of ...
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Nine Things Successful People Do Differently - Heidi Grant Halvorson - Harvard Business Review
Nine Things Successful People Do Differently - Heidi Grant Halvorson - Harvard Business Review
Nine Things Successful People Do Differently
Learn more about the science of success with Heidi Grant Halvorson's HBR Single, based on this blog post.
Why have you been so successful in reaching some of your goals, but not others? If you aren't sure, you are far from alone in your confusion. It turns out that even brilliant, highly accomplished people are pretty lousy when it comes to understanding why they succeed or fail. The intuitive answer — that you are born predisposed to certain talents and lacking in others — is really just one small piece of the puzzle. In fact, decades of research on achievement suggests that successful people reach their goals not simply because of who they are, but more often because of what they do.
1. Get specific. When you set yourself a goal, try to be as specific as possible. "Lose 5 pounds" is a better goal than "lose some weight," because it gives you a clear idea of what success looks like. Knowing exactly what you want to achieve keeps you motivated until you get there. Also, think about the specific actions that need to be taken to reach your goal. Just promising you'll "eat less" or "sleep more" is too vague — be clear and precise. "I'll be in bed by 10pm on weeknights" leaves no room for doubt about what you need to do, and whether or not you've actually done it.
2. Seize the moment to act on your goals. Given how busy most of us are, and how many goals we are juggling at once, it's not surprising that we routinely miss opportunities to act on a goal because we simply fail to notice them. Did you really have no time to work out today? No chance at any point to return that phone call? Achieving your goal means grabbing hold of these opportunities before they slip through your fingers.
To seize the moment, decide when and where you will take each action you want to take, in advance. Again, be as specific as possible (e.g., "If it's Monday, Wednesday, or Friday, I'll work out for 30 minutes before work.") Studies show that this kind of planning will help your brain to detect and seize the opportunity when it arises, increasing your chances of success by roughly 300%.
3. Know exactly how far you have left to go. Achieving any goal also requires honest and regular monitoring of your progress — if not by others, then by you yourself. If you don't know how well you are doing, you can't adjust your behavior or your strategies accordingly. Check your progress frequently — weekly, or even daily, depending on the goal.
4. Be a realistic optimist. When you are setting a goal, by all means engage in lots of positive thinking about how likely you are to achieve it. Believing in your ability to succeed is enormously helpful for creating and sustaining your motivation. But whatever you do, don't underestimate how difficult it will be to reach your goal. Most goals worth achieving require time, planning, effort, and persistence. Studies show that thinking things will come to you easily and effortlessly leaves you ill-prepared for the journey ahead, and significantly increases the odds of failure.
5. Focus on getting better, rather than being good. Believing you have the ability to reach your goals is important, but so is believing you can get the ability. Many of us believe that our intelligence, our personality, and our physical aptitudes are fixed — that no matter what we do, we won't improve. As a result, we focus on goals that are all about proving ourselves, rather than developing and acquiring new skills.
Fortunately, decades of research suggest that the belief in fixed ability is completely wrong — abilities of all kinds are profoundly malleable. Embracing the fact that you can change will allow you to make better choices, and reach your fullest potential. People whose goals are about getting better, rather than being good, take difficulty in stride, and appreciate the journey as much as the destination.
6. Have grit. Grit is a willingness to commit to long-term goals, and to persist in the face of difficulty. Studies show that gritty people obtain more education in their lifetime, and earn higher college GPAs. Grit predicts which cadets will stick out their first grueling year at West Point. In fact, grit even predicts which round contestants will make it to at the Scripps National Spelling Bee.
The good news is, if you aren't particularly gritty now, there is something you can do about it. People who lack grit more often than not believe that they just don't have the innate abilities successful people have. If that describes your own thinking .... well, there's no way to put this nicely: you are wrong. As I mentioned earlier, effort, planning, persistence, and good strategies are what it really takes to succeed. Embracing this knowledge will not only help you see yourself and your goals more accurately, but also do wonders for your grit.
7. Build your willpower muscle. Your self-control "muscle" is just like the other muscles in your body — when it doesn't get much exercise, it becomes weaker over time. But when you give it regular workouts by putting it to good use, it will grow stronger and stronger, and better able to help you successfully reach your goals.
To build willpower, take on a challenge that requires you to do something you'd honestly rather not do. Give up high-fat snacks, do 100 sit-ups a day, stand up straight when you catch yourself slouching, try to learn a new skill. When you find yourself wanting to give in, give up, or just not bother — don't. Start with just one activity, and make a plan for how you will deal with troubles when they occur ("If I have a craving for a snack, I will eat one piece of fresh or three pieces of dried fruit.") It will be hard in the beginning, but it will get easier, and that's the whole point. As your strength grows, you can take on more challenges and step-up your self-control workout.
8. Don't tempt fate. No matter how strong your willpower muscle becomes, it's important to always respect the fact that it is limited, and if you overtax it you will temporarily run out of steam. Don't try to take on two challenging tasks at once, if you can help it (like quitting smoking and dieting at the same time). And don't put yourself in harm's way — many people are overly-confident in their ability to resist temptation, and as a result they put themselves in situations where temptations abound. Successful people know not to make reaching a goal harder than it already is.
9. Focus on what you will do, not what you won't do. Do you want to successfully lose weight, quit smoking, or put a lid on your bad temper? Then plan how you will replace bad habits with good ones, rather than focusing only on the bad habits themselves. Research on thought suppression (e.g., "Don't think about white bears!") has shown that trying to avoid a thought makes it even more active in your mind. The same holds true when it comes to behavior — by trying not to engage in a bad habit, our habits get strengthened rather than broken.
If you want to change your ways, ask yourself, What will I do instead? For example, if you are trying to gain control of your temper and stop flying off the handle, you might make a plan like "If I am starting to feel angry, then I will take three deep breaths to calm down." By using deep breathing as a replacement for giving in to your anger, your bad habit will get worn away over time until it disappears completely.
It is my hope that, after reading about the nine things successful people do differently, you have gained some insight into all the things you have been doing right all along. Even more important, I hope are able to identify the mistakes that have derailed you, and use that knowledge to your advantage from now on. Remember, you don't need to become a different person to become a more successful one. It's never what you are, but what you do.
Heidi Grant Halvorson, Ph.D. is a motivational psychologist, and author of the new book Succeed: How We Can Reach Our Goals (Hudson Street Press, 2011). She is also an expert blogger on motivation and leadership for Fast Company and Psychology Today. Her personal blog, The Science of Success, can be found at www.heidigranthalvorson.com. Follow her on Twitter @hghalvorson
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Where Did All the Workers Go? 60 Years of Economic Change in 1 Graph
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Where Did All the Workers Go? 60 Years of Economic Change in 1 Graph
President Obama's State of the Union speech was surprisingly bullish on reviving manufacturing, prompting one very clever person on Twitter to say something along the lines of: "Democrats want the economy of the 1950s, while Republicans just want to live there."It got me thinking: What did the economy look like in the 1950s? If you could organize all the jobs into buckets and compare the paper-shuffling professional services bucket to the manufacturing bucket, what would they look like around 1950, and how has the picture changed in the last 60 years?
National Journal addressed just this topic in its special report on the rise and fall and rise of manufacturing. The spectacular graphic compares employment by sector in 1947 and 2007 and its most important lesson is a whopper. Manufacturing and agriculture employed one in three workers just after World War II. Today, those sectors employ only one in eight.
Where did all the making-stuff and growing-stuff jobs go? They went into services.
The champion in the last six decades was finance, insurance and real estate, which doubled its share of employment
from 10.5% to 21.4%. But the broader service industry -- including
professional and business services (a broad catch-all with marketing,
managing, consulting, computer services) and health and education
services -- also grew from about 13% to about 30%. Everything else has stayed pretty much the same. Government, wholesale/retail, information, and construction account for a little more than a third of the economy today, and they accounted for a little more than a third of the economy 60 years ago.
The big story about American jobs in the post-war period is this: The manufacturing/agriculture economy shrunk from 33% to 12%, and the services economy grew from 24% to 50%. I don't want to leave you with a facile explanation, but for the purposes of space, I think it's acceptable to say that as manufacturing and agriculture got more efficient, they required fewer American workers, while the services industry (which had slower efficiency gains since it has more person-to-person work) required more employees to keep up with the rising demand for consulting, nurses, teachers, computer technicians, and...
The champion in the last six decades was finance, insurance and real estate, which doubled its share of employment
from 10.5% to 21.4%. But the broader service industry -- including
professional and business services (a broad catch-all with marketing,
managing, consulting, computer services) and health and education
services -- also grew from about 13% to about 30%. Everything else has stayed pretty much the same. Government, wholesale/retail, information, and construction account for a little more than a third of the economy today, and they accounted for a little more than a third of the economy 60 years ago.
The big story about American jobs in the post-war period is this: The manufacturing/agriculture economy shrunk from 33% to 12%, and the services economy grew from 24% to 50%. I don't want to leave you with a facile explanation, but for the purposes of space, I think it's acceptable to say that as manufacturing and agriculture got more efficient, they required fewer American workers, while the services industry (which had slower efficiency gains since it has more person-to-person work) required more employees to keep up with the rising demand for consulting, nurses, teachers, computer technicians, and...
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Monday, January 23, 2012
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